PROGNOSIS
Intra-hour prediction of solar electricity generation from Photovoltaics based on Big Data analysis.
Call
SOLAR-ERA.NET
APCIN 2018
Type
SOLAR-ERA.NET Cofund 1
APCIN 2018
Duration
06/2022 – 05/2026
Overall Budget
316.500 €
El concepto de PROGNOSIS se relaciona con el desarrollo de un modelo dinámico de asimilación de datos para el pronóstico intrahora de la irradiación solar en un área específica teniendo en cuenta la presencia de nubes / aerosoles en el área. El concepto innovador de PROGNOSIS se basa en el hecho de que el modelo no utiliza ningún tipo de dato meteorológico (datos satelitales – baja resolución espacial y temporal) o equipo especializado (por ejemplo, todas las cámaras de cielo, dispositivos de medición de la irradiancia solar – alto coste de inversión). En cambio, las entradas de datos derivarán de las series temporales de la potencia de salida de una densa malla multipunto de paneles fotovoltaicos (PV) conectados a la red.
PROGNOSIS se implementará principalmente en el sector de la energía como un enfoque de gestión operativa para pronósticos precisos dentro de la hora de producción de energía solar a través de un protocolo de comunicación abierto. Además, se puede utilizar como un servicio para administradores de PV a gran escala o agregados, para proporcionarles la información necesaria para predecir su producción de electricidad, información que los operadores del sistema pueden utilizar para la gestión de la capacidad y la programación. En el futuro, podría utilizarse en los sistemas de gestión de la energía de los edificios (BEMS) como una herramienta integrada para pronosticar la producción y la demanda de energía del edificio y en el desarrollo y la gestión posteriores de las microrredes de toda la ciudad.
Proyecto PCI2018-093043, financiado por: FEDER/Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación – Agencia Estatal de Investigación, en el marco de la convocatoria española de Acciones de Programación Conjunta Internacional APCIN 2018 y el programa internacional SOLAR-ERA.NET Cofund 1.
The concept of PROGNOSIS is related to the development of a dynamic data assimilation model for intra-hour forecasting of solar irradiance over a specific area taking into consideration the presence of clouds/aerosols over the area. The innovative concept of PROGNOSIS is based on the fact that the model does not utilise any meteorological data (satellite data – low spatial and temporal resolution) or specialized equipment (i.e. all sky cameras, solar irradiance measuring devices – high capital cost). Instead, the inputs will derive from the time-series of the power output of a dense multipoint grid of grid-connected Photovoltaics (PVs).
PROGNOSIS will be mainly implemented in the energy sector as an operational management approach for precise intra-hour forecasts of solar energy production through an open communication protocol. Additionally, it can be used as a service to large scale or aggregated PV managers, to provide them with the necessary information to predict their electricity production, information that system operators can then use for capacity management and scheduling. In the future, it could be used in Building Energy Management Systems as an integrated tool for forecasting energy production and demand from the building and in the further development and management of city-wide microgrids.
Project PCI2018-093043, funded by: FEDER/Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación – Agencia Estatal de Investigación, within the framework of the Spanish call for International Joint Programming Actions APCIN 2018 and the international SOLAR-ERA.NET Cofund 1 program.
Our objectives
PROGNOSIS is essentially a real-time decision making tool based on big data analysis. Based on this analysis, decision-making will be achieved for management, optimization and visualization of microgrids and electricity systems. Expected results of the project include:
– 1. Development of a low cost computation model to forecast energy production from grid connected PVs using no other exogenous inputs than the power output of the PVs of the network.
– 2. Provide increased flexibility to solar electricity supply since the forecast model will enable system operators to achieve optimum capacity management and scheduling.
– 3. Provide additional profit to the operators of the PVs which are introduced to electricity markets since it will enable the operators of aggregated or large scale PVs to provide reliable amount of electricity.
Socios – Partners
PROGNOSIS is a three partner transnational project (two research institutions and one SME), where each of the partners has great expertise in a scientific field relative to the project and possesses equipment and know-how which is not currently available to the other three partners.
- Cyprus University of Technology (CUT)
CUT, is a state University in Cyprus with a strategic target to design and develop research activities both within the University and in cooperation with other research Institutes in Cyprus and abroad. As a research institution, CUT has great experience in the participation and management of EU funded programs. Moreover, CUT’s personnel involved in the project have extensive experience in solar irradiance modelling, in developing predictive algorithms and correlation tools and in modelling solar energy systems, while they have been coordinators or partners in relevant research projects.
- Instituto Valenciano de la Edificación (IVE)
IVE, is a private non-profit making foundation with public interest set up in October 1986. It is a research institute that seeks to improve the quality and sustainability in the construction process through the R&D&Ι in the built environment. IVE board includes regional government, professionals, developers, building contractors, end-users, in order to provide a platform for ideas exchange, developments and knowledge in the different fields of construction. IVE’s personnel involved in the project have extensive experience in GIS, in online platform development and visual representation of energy systems. Besides data from PVs, IVE brings their “Construction Prices Database” to the table which offers description and price consultations and technical specification reports thereby making it a reliable reference for decision making.
- JohnSun Heaters LTD
IVE, is a private non-profit making foundation with public interest set up in October 1986. It is a research institute that seeks to improve the quality and sustainability in the construction process through the R&D&Ι in the built environment. IVE board includes regional government, professionals, developers, building contractors, end-users, in order to provide a platform for ideas exchange, developments and knowledge in the different fields of construction. IVE’s personnel involved in the project have extensive experience in GIS, in online platform development and visual representation of energy systems. Besides data from PVs, IVE brings their “Construction Prices Database” to the table which offers description and price consultations and technical specification reports thereby making it a reliable reference for decision making.